Based on a survey of quantum computing (QC) commercial entities spanning the QC ecosystem, there are significant concerns that there could be a serious QC-related supply chain disruption in the next few years. Potential choke points are widely dispersed across the supply chain spanning assured access to necessary raw materials to a steady supply of trained software experts. Further complicating this issue is that the QC sector is currently in a nascent and rapidly changing state with a spate of new technologies, hardware and software implementations, and related production and distribution schemes yet to be firmly established. The QC sector will likely remain fluid for at least the next few years, and the establishment of a well-defined, complete, and stable supply chain for the sector will remain in flux for at least as long, if not longer.
In order to generate a first-order understanding of key QC supply chain issues and to better assess the current and potential future choke points for the domestic QC supply chain, Hyperion Research, at the behest of QED-C®, recently conducted a survey seeking information and insights on the various challenges facing the global QC supply chain. The survey was sent to a wide and diverse collection of primarily US-based QC organizations, and input was collected from 47 different respondents with participation across a broad base of the US QC supplier base.
Key findings of this survey included:
Nearly 60% of survey respondents indicated that some form of a QC supply chain disruption was likely in the next three years relating to materials, components, or sub-assemblies supplied to the QC sector or QC-related goods and/or services marketed to end users. Specifically, 32% of respondents indicated that such an event was very likely, while 26% indicated it was somewhat likely.
When asked what would be the single most likely cause of a QC-related supply chain disruption within their organization in the next three years, respondents answered that access to key raw materials and manufacturing/assembly equipment would be the most likely candidates. The two next most selected options were related to access to needed technical expertise in either hardware of software design/production. Only 6% of respondents saw access to R&D funding as a major QC choke point in the next three years.
Survey respondents had strong opinions on the value of various US government policy initiatives related to QC supply chain dynamics. In general, the policy initiatives deemed most beneficial centered on increased support, both financial and technical, from US government programs, while any initiatives that could hinder US QC supplier efforts to freely engage in a global QC ecosystem were deemed detrimental. Specifically:
Owing to the broad range of US QC supply chain concerns, US policy options to eliminate, or even lessen, the specter of any significant QC supply chain disruptions are neither clear nor reducible to a one size fits all solution. Ultimately a comprehensive range of mutually reinforcing initiatives will be needed to adequately secure all aspects of the US QC ecosystem. At the same time, these programs, as is typical for any critical advanced technology, must address key US government use cases for the technology while furthering the overall and global competitive ability of the domestic commercial sector. Suggested next steps include: